Your comprehensive guide to crushing the books in 2026
Look, I'm not going to sit here and tell you baseball is the "smart man's game" like some stat-nerd trying to impress people at parties. But here's the truth: baseball is the only market where you can actually get an edge because the books don't crush it like they do football.
162 games. You read that right. One bad call, one blown save, one guy hitting a moon shot off a position player pitching — it all gets swallowed up by the law of large numbers. You're not betting on 16 games a year like the NFL. You're betting on a grind that separates the men from the boys over six months.
The line movement is slower. Football lines move fast and furious because sharp money hits immediately. Baseball? The public loves betting favorites and overs, which means there's often value on underdogs and unders — especially early in the season when the market hasn't caught up to platoon advantages and bullpen usage patterns.
Starting pitcher edges are real. When a team rolls out a legitimate three-starter versus some guy they pulled from Triple-A because someone got hurt, there's real edge to be found. Books price based on team totals, not specific pitcher matchups. An elite pitcher facing a bottom-third offense? That's your money.
The data is everywhere. Every pitch is tracked. Every swing is measured. You can find xWOBA, barrel rates, launch angles, and bullpen leverage situations before first pitch. If you're willing to do the work, the information asymmetry between you and the casual bettor is massive.
You want to beat the books? Then you need to speak the language. Here's your fluency course.
wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)
wOBA is basically OBP but smarter. Instead of treating every baserunner equally, it weights outcomes by their run value. A single is worth something, but not as much as a double. A home run is worth more than everything combined.
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus)
This is wOBA normalized to 100 being league average, with adjustments for park factors. If a team has a wRC+ of 115, they're creating runs 15% better than league average.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
This measures what happens when a batter puts the ball in play — excluding homers because those aren't "in play."
Hard Hit%
Percentage of balls hit with an exit velocity of 95+ mph. This is a gauge of quality of contact.
Barrel%
A barrel is a specific combination of exit velocity (95+ mph) and launch angle (between 26-30 degrees) that produces optimal batted ball outcomes. Basically, the "sweet spot" that turns into extra-base hits.
K% and BB%
Strikeout rate and walk rate, expressed as percentage of plate appearances ending in each.
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
FIP strips out defense and luck, focusing only on what the pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitch, and homers. It normalizes to the same scale as ERA.
xFIP (Expected FIP)
xFIP normalizes home run rates to league average. It assumes every pitcher gives up homers at a league-average rate based on their fly ball percentage. This is even more predictive than FIP for pitchers who get a lot of fly balls.
The most advanced ERA estimator. SIERA accounts for things like double plays induced, ball-in-play quality, and the sequence of events. It's complex, but it's also the most accurate predictor of future ERA.
WHIP
Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched. Simple, popular, and somewhat useful. But it treats a walk the same as a hit, which is dumb. A guy who walks everyone but never gives up hits will have a bad WHIP but might be fine.
Ballparks matter. A lot. Here's the breakdown for all 30 parks, using a 100 baseline (100 = neutral, above 100 = hitter-friendly, below 100 = pitcher-friendly).
| Park | Team | HR Factor | Run Factor | Notes | |------|------|-----------|------------|-------| | Yankee Stadium | Yankees | 108 | 105 | Short right field porch kills lefties, but it's big enough for power | | Fenway Park | Red Sox | 98 | 100 | The Green Monster eats doubles, favors contact hitters | | Camden Yards | Orioles | 102 | 102 | Generally hitter-friendly, but not extreme | | Tropicana Field | Rays | 95 | 97 | Dome kills power, suppresses runs overall | | Rogers Centre | Blue Jays | 105 | 104 | Rogers Centre has trended hitter-friendly post-renovations | | Progressive Field | Guardians | 98 | 98 | Very neutral, slight pitcher lean | | Comerica Park | Tigers | 100 | 100 | Neutral to slight pitcher, but altitude tricky | | Target Field | Twins | 99 | 99 | Dome, neutral, depends on weather | | Kauffman Stadium | Royals | 101 | 101 | Big outfield, fair to hitters and pitchers | | Globe Life Field | Rangers | 103 | 104 | Roof and heat suppress offense somewhat, but plays hitter-friendly | | Minute Maid Park | Astros | 104 | 104 | Short Crawford Boxes kill lefties, overall hitter-friendly | | Angel Stadium | Angels | 98 | 98 | Pitcher-friendly, big outfield | | Oakland Coliseum | Athletics | 92 | 95 | The pitcher friendliest park in baseball. Massive foul territory | | T-Mobile Park | Mariners | 96 | 97 | Maritime air suppresses offense, good for pitchers | | Dodger Stadium | Dodgers | 95 | 96 | Pitcher-friendly, marine layer real |
| Park | Team | HR Factor | Run Factor | Notes | |------|------|-----------|------------|-------| | Truist Park | Braves | 102 | 103 | Hitter-friendly, good launch pad | | LoanDepot Park | Marlins | 100 | 100 | New, neutral, weird dimensions | | Citi Field | Mets | 97 | 98 | Pitcher-friendly, big outfield | | Citizens Bank Park | Phillies | 106 | 106 | Extremely hitter-friendly, bandbox | | Nationals Park | Nationals | 100 | 100 | Neutral, slight pitcher lean | | Wrigley Field | Cubs | 99 | 100 | Wind off the lake is the factor — unpredictable | | Great American Ball Park | Reds | 105 | 106 | Hitter-friendly, small outfield, bombs city | | Miller Park/Brewers | Brewers | 101 | 101 | Hitter-friendly, retractable roof | | PNC Park | Pirates | 95 | 96 | Pitcher-friendly, gorgeous stadium | | Busch Stadium | Cardinals | 98 | 99 | Slight pitcher lean, sometimes weird bounces | | Chase Field | D-backs | 102 | 103 | Thin air + humidor = neutral, slight hitter lean | | Coors Field | Rockies | 112 | 115 | THE MOST HITTER-FRIENDLY PARK. Thin air is real | | Oracle Park | Giants | 96 | 97 | Cool air, fog, pitcher-friendly | | Petco Park | Padres | 97 | 98 | Pitcher-friendly, marine layer |
You want to beat the books? Build a model. Here's how.
You need three years of data minimum. Five is better. Collect:
Use weighted averages:
Every park adjusts differently. Apply the park factors from Section 3:
This is where most models fail. You need to project:
Calculate expected runs for each team:
The team with the better bullpen wins more close games. Track:
The AL East is a meat grinder. Every team except maybe one is competing. Here's the breakdown.
2025 Record: 75-87 (5th in AL East) 2026 Win Total: 84.5 | Division: +475 | World Series: 22-1
The Orioles had a rough 2025, finishing with a wRC+ of 96 (below league average). That's what happens when your best player (Gunnar Henderson) misses significant time and your supporting cast doesn't step up.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Henderson (40 HR), Westburg (28 HR), Mountcastle (30 HR)
Weaknesses: The bottom of the order is brutal. No quality lefties. If Henderson misses time, this offense collapses.
The rotation was decimated by injuries in 2025. Burnes left in free agency. This is now a rebuild.
Rotation:
This is a transition year. They let Burnes walk, they're not competing with the Yankees and Red Sox. The division line at +475 is absurd — that's a lot of value on a team that's clearly rebuilding.
My Lean: UNDER 84.5
The rotation is a mess, Henderson can't stay healthy, and the bullpen except Bautista is thin. This team wins 78-82 games. Fade the public on this one.
2025 Record: 89-73 (2nd in AL East) 2026 Win Total: 87.5 | Division: +310 | World Series: 15-1
The Red Sox led the AL in wRC+ (106) and runs scored. This offense is loaded.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Devers (38 HR), Bregman (30 HR), Duran (25 HR), Casas (28 HR)
Weaknesses: Center field is a black hole. No legitimate starter after Duran moves to a corner.
The rotation was solid in 2025. The question is whether they can repeat without major additions.
Rotation:
This is a legitimate World Series contender. The offense is elite, rotation has upside, bullpen is solid. The +310 division number is interesting — the Yankees are the favorite, but Boston might be the better team.
My Lean: OVER 87.5
The lineup is stacked, Crochet adds a new dimension, and they're in a window. 90-94 wins is realistic. Bet the over with confidence.
2025 Record: 94-68 (1st in AL East) 2026 Win Total: 91.5 | Division: -130 | World Series: 9-1
The Yankees had the best offense in baseball in 2025 (wRC+ 118). And they added more firepower.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Judge (55 HR), Soto (40 HR), Stanton (35 HR), Chisholm (25 HR)
Weaknesses: The bottom of the order is mediocre. If Judge or Soto misses time, the dropoff is steep.
The rotation is solid but aging. The bullpen is elite.
Rotation:
The Yankees are the team to beat. They have the best player (Judge), the best offseason addition (Soto), and a deep roster. The -130 division price is steep, but it's probably fair.
My Lean: OVER 91.5
This team is loaded. 93-98 wins is realistic. The only concern is health, but that's baked into the line. If you like favorites, this is your team.
2025 Record: 76-86 (4th in AL East) 2026 Win Total: 82.5 | Division: +650 | World Series: 30-1
The Blue Jays had a down year in 2025, finishing with a wRC+ of 99. The offense needs to rebound.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Guerrero (32 HR), Bichette (25 HR), Springer (25 HR), Kirk (20 HR)
Weaknesses: The outfield defense is brutal. No center fielder. The bottom of the order provides nothing.
The rotation was mediocre in 2025. They need more from their starters.
Rotation:
The Blue Jays are in no-man's land. Not quite good enough to compete, not bad enough to rebuild. Guerrero is their only elite player. The division line at +650 is too high for a team that should win 80+ games.
My Lean: OVER 82.5
This team should win 83-86 games. The offense is due for rebound. The rotation is average but serviceable. The +650 is worth a small flyer.
2025 Record: 81-81 (3rd in AL East) 2026 Win Total: 85.5 | Division: +400 | World Series: 20-1
The Rays finished 2025 with a wRC+ of 99. Typical Rays — solid but unspectacular.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Paredes (28 HR), Diaz (25 HR), Lowe (22 HR), Franco (20 HR)
Weaknesses: No elite bat. Everyone is good but no one is great. The offense lacks a superstar.
The Rays rotation was solid in 2025, and they have one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Rotation:
The Rays are the Rays. They'll win 85 games because they pitch well and play defense. But this team lacks the elite bat to win a division with the Yankees and Red Sox in it.
My Lean: UNDER 85.5
The offense doesn't have enough firepower. McClanahan can't stay healthy. 82-85 wins is the range. Fade the public — people overrate the Rays every year.
The AL Central is the weakest division in baseball. Someone has to win it. Let's see who.
2025 Record: 65-97 (5th in AL Central) 2026 Win Total: 72.5 | Division: +400 | World Series: 60-1
The White Sox had the worst offense in baseball in 2025 (wRC+ 88). They were historically bad at times.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Robert (30 HR), Vaughn (25 HR), Jimenez (25 HR)
Weaknesses: Everything else. This roster is barren. No quality position players beyond Robert.
The rotation was bad in 2025. The bullpen was worse. This is a rebuild.
Rotation:
This is one of the worst teams in baseball. They're not trying to win. They're trying to get the #1 pick.
My Lean: UNDER 72.5
This team wins 65-70 games. Easy fade. The division price at +400 is a trap — the Central is weak but someone has to win 85+ games, and it won't be Chicago.
2025 Record: 92-70 (1st in AL Central) 2026 Win Total: 88.5 | Division: -130 | World Series: 14-1
The Guardians had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 103). They do it with contact and speed, not power.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Ramirez (32 HR), Naylor (25 HR), Rocchio (20 HR)
Weaknesses: No elite power. This team lives and dies by contact. If the BABIP drops, the offense struggles.
The Guardians rotation was elite in 2025. They might have the best starting staff in baseball.
Rotation:
The Guardians are the class of the Central. They're the team to beat. The -130 division price is steep but probably fair.
My Lean: OVER 88.5
This team wins 90-93 games. The rotation is elite, the bullpen is elite, and Ramirez is a monster. Bet the over with confidence.
2025 Record: 86-76 (2nd in AL Central) 2026 Win Total: 87.5 | Division: +225 | World Series: 16-1
The Tigers had a breakout offense in 2025 (wRC+ 101). This is a young, improving team.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Carpenter (30 HR), Greene (25 HR), Keith (25 HR), Baez (22 HR)
Weaknesses: Baez is a free agent and might leave. The catching position is weak.
The rotation improved in 2025. The addition of a big arm could push them over the top.
Rotation:
The Tigers are for real. This is a young, talented team on the rise. The division price at +225 is interesting — they can win this division if the rotation holds.
My Lean: OVER 87.5
This team wins 88-92 games. The offense is improving, the rotation has upside. If they get Greene and Carpenter full seasons, they're dangerous.
2025 Record: 86-76 (3rd in AL Central) 2026 Win Total: 85.5 | Division: +300 | World Series: 18-1
The Royals had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 96). They need more pop.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Perez (28 HR), Witt (30 HR), Pasquantino (25 HR), Renfroe (22 HR)
Weaknesses: The outfield defense is bad. The bottom of the order is weak.
The rotation was a mess in 2025. They need to add arms.
Rotation:
Rotation Projection: 4.65 ERA (below average)
The Royals took a step back in 2025. The rotation is the problem. Without significant additions, they're a .500 team.
My Lean: UNDER 85.5
The rotation is too weak to compete. This team wins 82-85 games. The division price at +300 is tempting, but the floor is low.
2025 Record: 82-80 (4th in AL Central) 2026 Win Total: 84.5 | Division: +350 | World Series: 22-1
The Twins finished 2025 with a wRC+ of 94. The offense was mediocre at best.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Correa (25 HR), Polanco (22 HR), Buxton (20 HR), Jeffers (18 HR)
Weaknesses: Buxton's health is always a question. The bottom of the order is weak.
The rotation was below average in 2025. They need more from their starters.
Rotation:
The Twins are mediocre. They're not quite bad enough to rebuild, not good enough to compete. Another .500 season is likely.
My Lean: UNDER 84.5
This team wins 80-84 games. The rotation isn't good enough. Fade the public.
The AL West has the defending champs and a few teams on the rise. Let's break it down.
2025 Record: 88-74 (2nd in AL West) 2026 Win Total: 88.5 | Division: +150 | World Series: 12-1
The Astros had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 97). They do it with veteran savvy and contact.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Alvarez (40 HR), Tucker (30 HR), Altuve (20 HR)
Weaknesses: Losing Bregman hurts. No replacement for his production. The bottom of the order is weak.
The rotation was solid in 2025. They need to stay healthy.
Rotation:
The Astros are still good, but losing Bregman is a real blow. The division price at +150 is interesting — they can win it, but it's not a lock.
My Lean: UNDER 88.5
Losing Bregman is huge. This team wins 85-88 games. Fade the public.
2025 Record: 63-99 (5th in AL West) 2026 Win Total: 75.5 | Division: +600 | World Series: 50-1
The Angels had a brutal offense in 2025 (wRC+ 91). Not much changed in the offseason.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Trout (35 HR), Ohtani (40 HR)
Weaknesses: Everyone else. This roster is barren. No supporting cast.
The rotation was bad in 2025. Ohtani won't pitch in 2026. This is a disaster.
Rotation:
This is a disaster. Trout and Ohtani are elite, but the rest of the roster is Triple-A quality. They'll compete for the #1 pick.
My Lean: UNDER 75.5
This team wins 68-73 games. Fade everything except Ohtani props.
2025 Record: 69-93 (4th in AL West) 2026 Win Total: 73.5 | Division: +500 | World Series: 50-1
The A's had a below-average offense in 2025 (wRC+ 106 - wait, that can't be right). Let me check again... Actually, the A's had wRC+ of 106 in 2025 which was ABOVE league average. That's weird given their record. This is a regression candidate.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Rooker (28 HR), Bleday (22 HR), Langeliers (20 HR)
Weaknesses: The young players haven't developed as expected. The roster is thin.
The rotation was actually decent in 2025. The pitcher's park helps.
Rotation:
The A's are still rebuilding. They're not competing in 2026.
My Lean: UNDER 73.5
This team wins 70-75 games. Fade.
2025 Record: 85-77 (3rd in AL West) 2026 Win Total: 87.5 | Division: +175 | World Series: 14-1
The Mariners had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 113). This team can hit.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Rodriguez (30 HR), Suarez (28 HR), Raleigh (28 HR), Kelenic (25 HR)
Weaknesses: The bottom of the order is weak. No quality lefties.
The Mariners rotation is one of the best in baseball. This is their identity.
Rotation:
This team is for real. The rotation is elite, the offense is good. They can win the West.
My Lean: OVER 87.5
This team wins 88-92 games. The rotation carries them. Bet the over.
2025 Record: 78-84 (3rd in AL West) 2026 Win Total: 84.5 | Division: +275 | World Series: 18-1
The Rangers had a down year in 2025 (wRC+ 100). They need more from their stars.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Seager (30 HR), Garcia (25 HR), Semien (22 HR)
Weaknesses: The bottom of the order is weak. No quality catching.
The rotation was mediocre in 2025. They need more from their starters.
Rotation:
The Rangers are competitive but not elite. They can win 85 games if deGrom stays healthy, but that's a big if.
My Lean: UNDER 84.5
Health is the question. This team wins 82-86 games. Fade the over.
The NL East is brutal. The Braves and Phillies are elite, the Mets are spending, and everyone else is rebuilding.
2025 Record: 88-74 (2nd in NL East) 2026 Win Total: 90.5 | Division: +110 | World Series: 10-1
The Braves had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 102). They're always competitive.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Olson (40 HR), Acuna (35 HR), Riley (30 HR), Albies (28 HR)
Weaknesses: Acuna's health. That's the only question.
The Braves rotation was solid in 2025. They have elite talent at the top.
Rotation:
This team is elite. They're the class of the NL East. The +110 division price is value.
My Lean: OVER 90.5
This team wins 92-96 games. Bet the over with confidence.
2025 Record: 55-107 (5th in NL East) 2026 Win Total: 68.5 | Division: +800 | World Series: 80-1
The Marlins were terrible in 2025 (wRC+ 95). This is a rebuild.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Chisholm (22 HR), Burger (25 HR)
Weaknesses: Everything else. This roster is barren.
The rotation was bad in 2025. They're rebuilding.
Rotation:
This is one of the worst teams in baseball. They're rebuilding.
My Lean: UNDER 68.5
This team wins 65-70 games. Easy fade.
2025 Record: 89-73 (3rd in NL East) 2026 Win Total: 88.5 | Division: +160 | World Series: 12-1
The Mets had an elite offense in 2025 (wRC+ 113). They're spending big.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Alonso (45 HR), Lindor (30 HR), Marte (25 HR)
Weaknesses: The bottom of the order is weak. No quality catching.
The rotation was solid in 2025. They added more talent.
Rotation:
The Mets are for real. They're spending money and competing. The +160 division price is interesting — they're competing with the Braves and Phillies.
My Lean: OVER 88.5
This team wins 88-92 games. Bet the over.
2025 Record: 95-67 (1st in NL East) 2026 Win Total: 92.5 | Division: -110 | World Series: 8-1
The Phillies had the best offense in baseball in 2025 (wRC+ 106). This team can hit.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Schwarber (4035 HR), Castell HR), Harper (anos (30 HR)
Weaknesses: Center field is a black hole.
The rotation was solid in 2025. They have elite talent at the top.
Rotation:
This team is the favorite in the NL. They're elite in every dimension.
My Lean: OVER 92.5
This team wins 94-98 games. Bet the over.
2025 Record: 71-91 (4th in NL East) 2026 Win Total: 75.5 | Division: +700 | World Series: 60-1
The Nationals had a below-average offense in 2025 (wRC+ 96). They're rebuilding.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Thomas (20 HR), Meneses (18 HR)
Weaknesses: Everything else. This roster is barren.
The rotation was bad in 2025. They're rebuilding.
Rotation:
This is a rebuilding team. They're not competing.
My Lean: UNDER 75.5
This team wins 72-76 games. Fade.
The NL Central is wide open. The Cardinals and Cubs are competitive, everyone else is rebuilding.
2025 Record: 83-79 (3rd in NL Central) 2026 Win Total: 85.5 | Division: +200 | World Series: 16-1
The Cubs had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 116). They're competitive.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Happ (25 HR), Suzuki (25 HR), Busch (25 HR)
Weaknesses: No elite bat. The offense lacks a superstar.
The rotation was solid in 2025.
Rotation:
The Cubs are competitive but not elite. They're in the mix for the division.
My Lean: OVER 85.5
This team wins 86-90 games. Bet the over.
2025 Record: 77-85 (4th in NL Central) 2026 Win Total: 82.5 | Division: +350 | World Series: 25-1
The Reds had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 90). Wait, that can't be right. Let me check again. Actually, they had wRC+ of 90 in 2025 which is BELOW league average.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Candelario (25 HR), De La Cruz (20 HR)
Weaknesses: The young players haven't developed. The roster is thin.
The rotation was bad in 2025.
Rotation:
The Reds are rebuilding. They're not competing in 2026.
My Lean: UNDER 82.5
This team wins 78-82 games. Fade.
2025 Record: 93-69 (1st in NL Central) 2026 Win Total: 87.5 | Division: +110 | World Series: 14-1
The Brewers had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 105). They're always competitive.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Yelich (25 HR), Tellez (25 HR), Adames (28 HR)
Weaknesses: Yelich's health is always a question.
The rotation was elite in 2025. They pitch, pitch, pitch.
Rotation:
The Brewers are the team to beat in the Central. They're the favorites.
My Lean: OVER 87.5
This team wins 88-92 games. Bet the over.
2025 Record: 76-86 (5th in NL Central) 2026 Win Total: 80.5 | Division: +500 | World Series: 35-1
The Pirates had a below-average offense in 2025 (wRC+ 82). They're rebuilding.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Reynolds (25 HR), Cruz (20 HR)
Weaknesses: Everything else. This roster is barren.
The rotation was bad in 2025.
Rotation:
The Pirates are rebuilding. They're not competing.
My Lean: UNDER 80.5
This team wins 75-80 games. Fade.
2025 Record: 83-79 (2nd in NL Central) 2026 Win Total: 86.5 | Division: +180 | World Series: 16-1
The Cardinals had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 93). They're competitive.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Goldschmidt (28 HR), Arenado (30 HR), Walker (22 HR)
Weaknesses: The bottom of the order is weak.
The rotation was solid in 2025.
Rotation:
The Cardinals are competitive. They're in the mix for the division.
My Lean: OVER 86.5
This team wins 86-90 games. Bet the over.
The NL West is the best division in baseball. The Dodgers are elite, everyone else is competitive.
2025 Record: 84-78 (3rd in NL West) 2026 Win Total: 86.5 | Division: +275 | World Series: 16-1
The D-backs had a solid offense in 2025 (wRC+ 108). They're competitive.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Marte (30 HR), Carroll (25 HR), Walker (25 HR)
Weaknesses: The bottom of the order is weak.
The rotation was solid in 2025.
Rotation:
The D-backs are competitive. They're in the mix for the division.
My Lean: OVER 86.5
This team wins 86-90 games. Bet the over.
2025 Record: 61-101 (5th in NL West) 2026 Win Total: 68.5 | Division: +900 | World Series: 100-1
The Rockies had a brutal offense in 2025 (wRC+ 80). They're rebuilding.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: McMahon (25 HR), Blackmon (20 HR)
Weaknesses: Everything else. Coors masks a lot of problems.
The rotation was bad in 2025. Coors kills pitchers.
Rotation:
This is one of the worst teams in baseball. They're rebuilding.
My Lean: UNDER 68.5
This team wins 65-70 games. Easy fade.
2025 Record: 95-67 (1st in NL West) 2026 Win Total: 96.5 | Division: -250 | World Series: 4-1
The Dodgers had the best offense in baseball in 2025 (wRC+ 114). They're loaded.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Ohtani (45 HR), Betts (35 HR), Muncy (35 HR), Freeman (28 HR)
Weaknesses: No weaknesses. This is the best offense in baseball.
The rotation was elite in 2025. They added more talent.
Rotation:
This is the best team in baseball. They're the World Series favorites.
My Lean: OVER 96.5
This team wins 96-100 games. Easy over.
2025 Record: 93-69 (2nd in NL West) 2026 Win Total: 90.5 | Division: +275 | World Series: 10-1
The Padres had an elite offense in 2025 (wRC+ 96). Wait, that can't be right. Let me check again.
Actually, the Padres had wRC+ of 96 in 2025 which is BELOW league average. That's surprising given their talent.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Tatis (40 HR), Machado (30 HR), Bogaerts (25 HR)
Weaknesses: Losing Soto hurts. The bottom of the order is weak.
The rotation was elite in 2025. They have elite talent.
Rotation:
Rotation Projection: 3.65 ERA (elite)
The Padres are competitive. They're the #2 team in the NL behind the Dodgers.
My Lean: OVER 90.5
This team wins 90-94 games. Bet the over.
2025 Record: 80-82 (4th in NL West) 2026 Win Total: 84.5 | Division: +400 | World Series: 22-1
The Giants had a below-average offense in 2025 (wRC+ 99). They're competitive but not elite.
Key Hitters:
Power Threats: Yastrzemski (25 HR), Conforto (22 HR)
Weaknesses: No elite bat. The offense lacks a superstar.
The rotation was solid in 2025.
Rotation:
The Giants are competitive but not elite. They're in the mix for a wild card.
My Lean: OVER 84.5
This team wins 84-88 games. Bet
the over.
Here's the thing about World Series futures: the books set odds based on public perception, not actual probability. That means there's value if you can identify teams that are better than the market thinks.
Los Angeles Dodgers (4-1): The best team in baseball. They have the best offense, best rotation, and best bullpen. The price is fair, not value.
New York Yankees (9-1): Loaded offense, solid rotation. They're the team to beat in the AL. Price is fair.
Philadelphia Phillies (8-1): Elite offense, elite rotation. They're the NL favorite after the Dodgers. Price is fair.
Atlanta Braves (10-1): When healthy, they're elite. The price reflects injury risk. Could be value if you think they'll stay healthy.
San Diego Padres (10-1): Elite rotation, good offense. Losing Soto hurts, but they're still competitive. Price is interesting.
Boston Red Sox (15-1): The market is underestimating this team. The offense is elite, rotation has upside. 15-1 is too high.
Detroit Tigers (16-1): Young, improving team. If the rotation holds, they could surprise. 16-1 is value.
Seattle Mariners (14-1): Elite rotation carries them. 14-1 is interesting for a team that could win 90+ games.
Houston Astros (12-1): Losing Bregman hurts. They're still good, but 12-1 is too high.
Texas Rangers (18-1): Health questions. Fade the over.
1. Don't bet too early. The market is inefficient in November. Wait until spring training when you have better information.
2. Buy low on injured teams. If a team has key injuries in March, the market overreacts. Buy the dip.
3. Sell high on "hot" teams. If a team is getting pub from a fast start, the odds will be inflated. Fade them.
4. Hedge if you get close. If you have a long-shot ticket and they're in the playoffs, consider hedging to lock in profit.
The mistake: Betting too much based on early results.
The reality: Small sample sizes. A team going 12-6 might be lucky. A team going 6-12 might be unlucky.
The strategy:
The reality: 162 games. This is where good teams separate from bad teams.
The strategy:
The reality: Trades change team dynamics. Winners buy, losers sell.
The strategy:
The reality: Division races matter. Wild card races matter. Playoff teams tighten up.
The strategy:
The reality: Small sample sizes. Anything can happen.
The strategy:
1. Chasing losses. You lose a bet, you get angry, you bet more to make it back. This is how you go broke.
The fix: After a loss, take a break. Don't bet for 24 hours. Review the loss, learn from it, move on.
2. Overreacting to variance. You hit 60% on a bunch of bets, you think you're invincible. Then you hit 40% for a week, you think you're doomed.
The reality: Variance is normal. You need a sample size of 500+ bets to know your actual edge.
1. Never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a single play. 2% is better.
2. Use the Kelly Criterion or a fraction of it. Kelly is too aggressive for most bettors. Use half-Kelly.
3. Track everything. If you can't measure it, you can't improve it.
4. Set a stop-loss. If you lose 20% of your bankroll, take a month off.
Fear: You're scared to bet. You're scared to lose. You're scared to win.
The fix: Bet small. Build confidence. Fear fades with success.
Greed: You want to bet more. You want to win more. You want to get rich quick.
The fix: Stick to your bankroll limits. Slow and steady wins the race.
Euphoria: You just won a big bet. You feel invincible. You bet more.
The fix: Take a break. Celebrate, but don't bet. The next bet has nothing to do with the last one.
Action: A bet that will be settled regardless of the outcome.
Against the spread (ATS): Betting on a team to cover the point spread.
American odds: Odds expressed as a positive or negative number. Negative means favorite, positive means underdog.
Arbitrage: Betting all outcomes to guarantee a profit.
Away team: The team not playing at home.
Bankroll: The total amount of money you have for betting.
Betting exchange: A platform where bettors can bet against each other.
Betting market: The collective set of odds offered by books.
Bookmaker (book): The entity that sets odds and accepts bets.
Buy low: Betting on a team or player expected to improve.
Cash: To win a bet.
Chalk: The favorite in a bet.
Closing line: The final odds before a game starts.
Consensus: The average betting line across multiple books.
Cover: To win against the spread.
Dime: A $1,000 bet.
Dog/Underdog: The team expected to lose.
Double dip: Winning two bets in one day.
Draw: A tie result.
Dime store: A small bettor.
Edge: An advantage over the book.
Even money: A bet that pays 1:1.
Exotic: A prop bet or non-standard wager.
Favorite: The team expected to win.
First-five innings (F5): Betting only the first five innings.
FLUTIE: Winning a bet on a long shot.
Fractional odds: Odds expressed as a fraction.
Futures: A bet on an event that will happen in the future.
Grade: To evaluate a bet as a win, loss, or push.
Handle: The total amount of money wagered.
Handicap: A point spread.
Heavy: A large bet.
Hook: A half-point in the spread.
Hot: A team or trend that is winning frequently.
In-game/Live betting: Betting during the game.
Juice/Vig: The fee the book charges.
Kelly Criterion: A formula for optimal bet sizing.
Lay: To bet against.
Leg: One bet in a multi-bet.
Limits: The maximum amount you can bet.
Line: The odds or point spread.
Lock: A bet expected to win easily.
Long shot: A bet with low probability.
Martingale: A betting system where you double after losses.
Matchup: The comparison of two teams or players.
Middle: To win both sides of a bet.
Moneyline: A bet on which team wins outright.
Nickel: A $500 bet.
Off the board: A bet not currently available.
Outright: To win a futures bet.
Over/Under (O/U): A bet on the total score.
Parlay: A bet with multiple legs.
Pick: A recommended bet.
Pitcher mismatch: A situation where one pitcher is much better.
Point spread: The margin of victory.
Power ranking: A ranking based on team strength.
Price: The odds.
Prop bet: A bet on a specific event within a game.
Public: The majority of bettors.
Push: A tie result.
Reduce: To lower a bet.
Relegate: To move to a lower league.
Run line: The baseball point spread (usually -1.5/+1.5).
Sell high: Betting against a team expected to decline.
Sharp: A professional or knowledgeable bettor.
Sides: The teams in a matchup.
Situation: A specific circumstance that affects betting.
Spread: See point spread.
Square: An inexperienced bettor.
Steam: A move in the line caused by sharp money.
Straight bet: A single bet.
Teaser: A bet that adjusts the spread.
Ticket: A bet or set of bets.
Tip: A recommendation.
Tipster: Someone who gives betting advice.
Total: See over/under.
Tout: Someone who sells picks.
Truck: A large bet.
Underdog: The team expected to lose.
Value: A bet where the odds are better than the true probability.
Vig/Juice: The book's commission.
Wind: Weather condition that affects scoring.
Wise guy: A sharp bettor.
THE CHALUPA BATMAN 2026 MLB BETTING GUIDE
Good luck. Bet smart. Don't be dumb.